Key Economic Forecasts

  • Actual
  • Forecast

United States

I 2023 II 2023 III 2023 IV 2023 I 2024 II 2024 III 2024 IV 2024 I 2025 II 2025 III 2025 IV 2025 I 2026 II 2026 III 2026 IV 2026
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
% 2.2 2.1 4.9 3.4 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.5 3.0 2.6 1.4 2.8 2.2 2.5
Personal Consumption Expenditures:
PCE % 3.8 0.8 3.1 3.3 1.5 1.2 1.9 2.2 1.7 2.8 3.1 2.9 1.7 3.3 2.5 2.3
Inflation, end of period, year-over-year:
CPI % 5.0 3.1 3.7 3.4 3.5 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.3
Unemployment Rate (end of period):
% 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.7 3.8 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.8
Non-farm Payrolls, monthly avg. thousand:
305 274 213 227 267 177 173 155 145 140 130 145 125 135 140 150
Treasury 10-yr Note Yield % (end of period):
3.47 3.82 4.57 3.86 4.19 4.34 3.95 3.85 3.95 3.90 3.90 3.85 3.90 3.75 3.75 3.80
Federal funds rate % (end of period):
4.88 5.13 5.38 5.38 5.38 5.38 5.13 4.88 4.38 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.38 2.88 2.88 2.88

GDP Growth - Global Economy - Year over Year

Country 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
US 2.6 1.6 2.2 1.8 2.3 2.7 1.7 2.5 3.0 2.5 -2.2 5.8 1.9 2.5 1.8 2.5 2.2
Eurozone 1.7 1.4 -0.9 -0.2 1.4 2.1 1.9 2.5 1.8 1.6 -6.2 5.7 3.5 0.5 0.9 1.5 1.6
United Kingdom 1.7 0.7 0.3 1.8 2.9 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.6 -10.4 8.7 4.3 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.5
Japan 4.6 -0.4 1.6 1.5 -0.1 1.1 0.5 1.7 0.6 -0.4 -4.3 2.3 1.0 1.9 0.4 1.3 1.6
Canada 3.1 3.1 1.8 2.3 2.9 0.7 1.0 3.2 2.8 1.9 -5.1 5.0 3.4 1.1 1.6 1.8 2.1
India 8.4 8.6 6.7 4.9 7.4 8.0 8.1 7.2 6.4 4.0 -5.9 9.2 7.2 7.7 6.6 6.4 6.1
China 10.5 9.5 7.8 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.7 6.0 2.2 8.5 3.0 5.2 4.6 5.0 4.8
Brazil 7.5 2.7 0.9 2.3 0.1 -3.5 -3.5 1.2 1.2 1.4 -3.6 5.3 3.0 2.9 2.2 2.9 2.7
Mexico 5.2 4.0 3.9 1.4 2.3 2.7 2.7 2.4 2.2 -0.3 -8.8 6.1 3.9 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.8
Australia 2.8 2.6 3.6 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.7 1.8 -1.1 4.7 3.7 1.5 1.8 2.6 3.0
Russia 4.0 4.3 3.4 1.3 0.6 -2.8 -0.2 1.6 2.8 2.2 -2.7 5.6 -1.2 3.6 2.2 2.3 2.6
World 4.2 3.1 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.6 3.4 3.2 2.7 -3.0 6.2 3.0 2.7 2.0 2.8 2.9

Key Currency Values

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019 End 2020 End 2021 End 2022 End 2023 End 2024 End 2025
USD/Yen 91 93 81 77 87 105 119 120 117 113 110 109 104 115 131 141 135 125
Euro/USD 1.40 1.43 1.34 1.29 1.32 1.37 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.20 1.14 1.12 1.23 1.17 1.07 1.10 1.11 1.16

Oil (Brent spot) & Gasoline (U.S. average retail unleaded, $)

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019 End 2020 End 2021 End 2022 End 2023 End 2024 End 2025
Crude oil per barrel 46 78 95 107 111 111 58 38 49 67 54 67 52 78 85 77 81 83
Gasoline 1.61 2.57 3.00 3.27 3.30 3.32 2.26 2.00 2.31 2.47 2.26 2.58 2.30 3.38 3.20 3.12 3.10 3.24

Key Economic & Geopolitical Assumptions as of July 8, 2024

PROBABILITY U.S.
HIGH US economy slows to 1.8% growth in 2024. Outlook afterwards depends on who occupies the White House in 2025.
Moderate Chance of recession in 2025 and 2026 is 20% if Biden wins a second term-- but increases to 45% if Trump is victorious.
HIGH Trump's tax & tariff policies will widen budget deficits and fuel more inflation. Federal Reserve likely to hike rates again.
Moderate Should Biden win a second term, higher taxes on the wealthy and corporations will narrow deficits & further cool inflation.
HIGH Geopolitical assumption: Ukraine war to last thru 2024. Putin is emboldened by divisions in US Congress on aid to Kyiv.
HIGH Labor shortage continues to ease in U.S. due to immigration and slowdown in the pace of hiring. Wage inflation abates
FOREIGN
HIGH Despite numerous stimulus measures, China's growth to remain sluggish due to weak domestic demand, property crisis, poor demographics and capital outflows.
Moderate Vladimir Putin to fortifies his relationships with China, Iran and North Korea. West faces an alliance of autocrats.
HIGH China's Xi Jinping is possessed over annexing Taiwan and controlling the South China Sea's 10-dash line.
HIGH China seeks to keep U.S. bogged down in Ukraine to reduce America's presence in Indo-Pacific region.
Moderate With Iran on the threshold of a nuclear military power, Israel prepares to neutralize Hezbollah and its ties to Teheran.
HIGH Tensions seen increasing between China and India; may lead to fresh border skirmishes late 2024 & 2025.
HIGH In the absence of a tariff war, the global economy is set to rebound in 2025 as the major central banks lower rates.