Key Economic Forecasts:

  • Actual
  • Forecast

United States

I 2025 II 2025 III 2025 IV 2025 I 2026 II 2026 III 2026 IV 2026 I 2027 II 2027 III 2027 IV 2027 I 2028 II 2028 III 2028 IV 2028
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
% 2.1 3.3 2.8 2.4 1.9 2.6 2.2 1.9 1.2 2.0 1.5 1.8 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.2
Personal Consumption Expenditures:
PCE % 1.5 1.7 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.3 0.9 1.6 1.7 2.1 1.3 1.9 2.0 2.2
Inflation, end of period, year-over-year:
CPI % 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.8
Unemployment Rate (end of period):
% 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.1
Non-farm Payrolls, monthly avg. thousand:
155 165 160 170 155 170 175 160 145 140 130 130 100 85 95 115
Treasury 10-yr Note Yield % (end of period):
4.55 4.65 4.85 5.10 5.05 5.15 5.10 5.10 5.00 5.10 5.05 4.85 4.55 4.45 4.30 4.20
Federal funds rate % (mid-point, end of period):
4.63 4.63 4.63 4.63 4.63 4.38 4.13 3.38 3.38 3.38 3.38 3.13 3.13 2.88 2.88 2.88

GDP Growth - Global Economy - Year over Year

Country 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
US 2.6 1.6 2.2 1.8 2.3 2.7 1.8 2.5 3.0 2.6 -2.2 6.1 2.5 2.9 2.5 2.7 2.2 1.6 1.2
Eurozone 1.7 1.4 -0.9 -0.2 1.4 2.1 1.9 2.5 1.8 1.6 -6.2 5.7 3.5 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.6 1.3 1.1
United Kingdom 1.7 0.7 0.3 1.8 2.9 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.6 -10.4 8.7 4.3 0.1 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.2
Japan 4.6 -0.4 1.6 1.5 -0.1 1.1 0.5 1.7 0.6 -0.4 -4.3 2.3 1.0 1.9 0.2 1.3 0.9 0.8 1.0
Canada 3.1 3.1 1.8 2.3 2.9 0.7 1.0 3.2 2.8 1.9 -5.1 5.0 3.4 1.1 1.4 2.3 1.8 1.7 1.6
India 8.4 8.6 6.7 4.9 7.4 8.0 8.1 7.2 6.4 4.0 -5.9 9.2 7.2 7.7 6.9 6.4 6.1 6.0 5.8
China 10.5 9.5 7.8 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.7 6.0 2.2 8.5 3.0 5.2 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.6 4.4
Brazil 7.5 2.7 0.9 2.3 0.1 -3.5 -3.5 1.2 1.2 1.4 -3.6 5.3 3.0 2.9 3.1 2.4 2.2 2.7 2.6
Mexico 5.2 4.0 3.9 1.4 2.3 2.7 2.7 2.4 2.2 -0.3 -8.8 6.1 3.9 3.1 1.4 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.4
Australia 2.8 2.6 3.6 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.7 1.8 -1.1 4.7 3.7 1.5 1.5 2.1 2.5 2.2 1.9
Russia 4.0 4.3 3.4 1.3 0.6 -2.8 -0.2 1.6 2.8 2.2 -2.7 5.6 -1.2 3.6 3.9 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.1
World 4.2 3.1 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.6 3.4 3.2 2.7 -3.0 6.2 3.0 2.7 4.4 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.6

Key Currency Values

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019 End 2020 End 2021 End 2022 End 2023 End 2024 End 2025 End 2026 End 2027 End 2028
USD/Yen 91 93 81 77 87 105 119 120 117 113 110 109 104 115 131 141 155 148 139 135 130
Euro/USD 1.40 1.43 1.34 1.29 1.32 1.37 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.20 1.14 1.12 1.23 1.17 1.07 1.10 1.03 1.00 1.04 1.10 1.12

Oil (Brent spot) & Gasoline (U.S. average retail unleaded, $)

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019 End 2020 End 2021 End 2022 End 2023 End 2024 End 2025 End 2026 End 2027 End 2028
Crude oil per barrel 46 78 95 107 111 111 58 38 49 67 54 67 52 78 85 77 75 80 74 71 70
Gasoline 1.61 2.57 3.00 3.27 3.30 3.32 2.26 2.00 2.31 2.47 2.26 2.58 2.30 3.38 3.20 3.12 3.10 3.30 3.22 3.10 3.12

Key Economic & Geopolitical Assumptions as of November 19, 2024

PROBABILITY U.S.
HIGH The key assumption in our economic forecasts is that Trump's pledges to boost tariffs and slash taxes are enacted in 2025.
HIGH Expect faster growth & low unemployment in 2025/2026. But higher inflation & rising interest rates will weaken the economy in 2027/2028.
HIGH Trump to criticize Fed Chief Jerome Powell in 2025 for keeping rates too high. However it won't impact monetary policy that year.
Moderate As inflation accelerates next year, the Fed debates raising rates again. Odds of a rate hike in 2025 is 40%.
HIGH Jerome Powell's term as Fed Chairman expires in 2026. Trump to replace Powell with someone who will heed White House calls for lower rates.
Moderate As US federal debt swells under Trump, global investors gradually shun bidding at treasury auctions. Market rates surge and threaten a US recession 2027/2028.
FOREIGN
HIGH There are numerous high probability geopolitical threats in 2025/2026 that can erupt and shake up the global economy.
Moderate Ukraine's use of long range missiles deep into Russia raises the specter of Putin approving the use of battlefield nuclear weapons.
HIGH Iran's next Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamanei, is more ruthless than his father and likely greenlight production of nuclear bombs.
HIGH Israel and the US will ramp up military efforts to thwart Iran's nuclear military ambition and covertly work to end the theocratic regime.
Moderate The perceived withdrawal of US support for Ukraine will undermine American credibility and influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
HIGH China's Xi Jinping is committed to subsuming Taiwan by 2027, especially given Trump's reluctance to intervene militarily.
Moderate China views India as its main economic competitor; this may lead to fresh border skirmishes between the two nuclear powers in 2025/2026.