Key Economic Forecasts

  • Actual
  • Forecast

United States

I 2023 II 2023 III 2023 IV 2023 I 2024 II 2024 III 2024 IV 2024 I 2025 II 2025 III 2025 IV 2025 I 2026 II 2026 III 2026 IV 2026
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
% 2.2 2.1 4.9 3.4 1.6 2.6 2.1 2.9 2.0 2.7 3.0 2.6 1.4 2.8 2.2 2.5
Personal Consumption Expenditures:
PCE % 3.8 0.8 3.1 3.3 2.5 3.2 2.9 2.6 1.7 2.8 3.1 2.9 1.7 3.3 2.5 2.3
Inflation, end of period, year-over-year:
CPI % 5.0 3.1 3.7 3.4 3.5 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.3
Unemployment Rate (end of period):
% 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.7 3.8 4.1 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.9 3.9 4.0
Non-farm Payrolls, monthly avg. thousand:
305 274 213 227 269 205 190 195 190 185 190 195 185 175 160 155
Treasury 10-yr Note Yield % (end of period):
3.47 3.82 4.57 3.86 4.19 4.25 4.10 4.05 4.00 3.95 3.90 3.85 3.92 3.75 3.55 3.30
Federal funds rate % (end of period):
4.88 5.13 5.38 5.38 5.38 5.38 5.13 4.88 4.38 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.38 2.88 2.88 2.88

GDP Growth - Global Economy - Year over Year

Country 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
US 2.6 1.6 2.2 1.8 2.3 2.7 1.7 2.5 3.0 2.5 -2.2 5.8 1.9 2.5 2.3 2.6 2.2
Eurozone 1.7 1.4 -0.9 -0.2 1.4 2.1 1.9 2.5 1.8 1.6 -6.2 5.7 3.5 0.5 0.9 1.5 1.6
United Kingdom 1.7 0.7 0.3 1.8 2.9 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.6 -10.4 8.7 4.3 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.5
Japan 4.6 -0.4 1.6 1.5 -0.1 1.1 0.5 1.7 0.6 -0.4 -4.3 2.3 1.0 1.9 0.4 1.3 1.6
Canada 3.1 3.1 1.8 2.3 2.9 0.7 1.0 3.2 2.8 1.9 -5.1 5.0 3.4 1.1 1.6 1.8 2.1
India 8.4 8.6 6.7 4.9 7.4 8.0 8.1 7.2 6.4 4.0 -5.9 9.2 7.2 7.7 6.6 6.4 6.1
China 10.5 9.5 7.8 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.7 6.0 2.2 8.5 3.0 5.2 4.6 5.0 4.8
Brazil 7.5 2.7 0.9 2.3 0.1 -3.5 -3.5 1.2 1.2 1.4 -3.6 5.3 3.0 2.9 2.2 2.9 2.7
Mexico 5.2 4.0 3.9 1.4 2.3 2.7 2.7 2.4 2.2 -0.3 -8.8 6.1 3.9 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.8
Australia 2.8 2.6 3.6 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.7 1.8 -1.1 4.7 3.7 1.5 1.8 2.6 3.0
Russia 4.0 4.3 3.4 1.3 0.6 -2.8 -0.2 1.6 2.8 2.2 -2.7 5.6 -1.2 3.6 2.2 2.3 2.6
World 4.2 3.1 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.6 3.4 3.2 2.7 -3.0 6.2 3.0 2.7 2.0 2.8 2.9

Key Currency Values

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019 End 2020 End 2021 End 2022 End 2023 End 2024
USD/Yen 91 93 81 77 87 105 119 120 117 113 110 109 104 115 131 141 132
Euro/USD 1.40 1.43 1.34 1.29 1.32 1.37 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.20 1.14 1.12 1.23 1.17 1.07 1.10 1.11

Oil (Brent spot) & Gasoline (U.S. average retail unleaded, $)

End 2008 End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 End 2018 End 2019 End 2020 End 2021 End 2022 End 2023 End 2024
Crude oil per barrel 46 78 95 107 111 111 58 38 49 67 54 67 52 78 85 77 83
Gasoline 1.61 2.57 3.00 3.27 3.30 3.32 2.26 2.00 2.31 2.47 2.26 2.58 2.30 3.38 3.20 3.12 3.10

Key Economic & Geopolitical Assumptions as of May 2, 2024

PROBABILITY U.S.
HIGH US economy slows to between 1.5% - 2.00% in 1H 2024, before accelerating above 2% in 2H. Recession odds: 20%.
Moderate Expect Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates in July 2024 (25 bp) and then again end of the year. More cuts in 2025
HIGH Geopolitical assumption 1: Middle East conflict winds down by IIIQ 2024. Disruptions to maritime traffic in Red Sea fades.
Moderate Geopolitical assumption 2: Ukraine war to last thru 2024. Putin emboldened by divisions in US Congress on aid to Kyiv.
HIGH The resumption of disinflation and Fed easing will drive Treasury 10-yr. yield below 4% by end of 2024 or early 2025.
HIGH Labor shortage continues to ease in U.S. due to immigration and slight slowdown in the pace of hiring in 2H of 2024.
FOREIGN
HIGH China doomed to sluggish growth due to weak domestic demand, property crisis, poor demographics and capital outflows.
Moderate Vladimir Putin to fortify his relationship with China, Iran and North Korea to offset US & EU sanctions.
HIGH Beijing forges ahead in its control of South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, extending its boundary to 10-dash line.
HIGH China seeks to keep U.S. bogged down in Ukraine to reduce America's presence in Indo-Pacific region.
Moderate Record US oil production, along with rising non-OPEC output will keep WTI prices stable in $75 - $85 ranger.
HIGH Tensions seen increasing between China and India; may lead to fresh border skirmishes in 2024 & 2025.
HIGH Global economy to rebound in 2H 2024 as the major central banks begin to lower rates.